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Wednesday, April 1, 2020

The next outbreak? We’re not ready | Says- Bill Gates

The next outbreak? We’re not ready | Says- Bill Gates

When I was a kid, the catastrophe we were most worried about was nuclear war. That's why we had this barrel in our basement, filled with cans of food and water. When the nuclear attack came, we had to go down, the hunter would come down and eat from that barrel. Today does not seem like the greatest risk of global catastrophe. Instead, it looks like this. If something kills more than 10 million people in the next few decades, it is more likely to be a highly contagious virus than a war. Not missiles, germs. Now, part of the reason for this is that we have invested large amounts of nuclear deterrent. But we have actually invested very little in any system to stop the pandemic. We are not ready for the next epidemic. Let's look at Ebola. I am sure you all read this in the newspaper, very difficult challenges. We carefully followed this up using case analysis tools to track polio eradication. And whatever you see, the problem was not that there was a system that didn't work well enough, the problem was that we had no system at all.
In fact, some pretty obvious key missing pieces. Not a single epidemiologist was ready for us to go, whoever, what the disease looked like, how far it had spread. Case reports come in the paper. It was too late before being put online and they were extremely wrong. We have no medical team to go to. We didn't have a way to prepare people. Now, the Medicine Suns Frontiers have done a great job orchestrating the volunteers. But still, we were much slower than we should have taken thousands of workers to these countries. And we need millions of workers for a massive pandemic. There was no one there to look at the method of treatment. There is no one to look at diagnostics. There is no one to understand what tools should be used. For example, we can take the blood of survivors, process it, and return those plasma humans to protect them. Never tried, however. So a lot of things were missing. And these things are truly a world failure. The WHO is funded to monitor the epidemic, but not by the things I talked about. Now, it's a bunch of different handsome epidemiologists ready to go to the movies, they go ahead, they save the day, but it's just pure Hollywood. Failure to Prepare The next pandemic could be dramatically more devastating than watching Ebola's progress this year, rather than Ebola. About 10,000 people died and almost all were in three countries in West Africa. Three more reasons why it has not spread. The first is that the health workers did a lot of heroic work. They found people and they prevented further infections. The second is the nature of the virus. Ebola does not spread through the air. And when you get infectious, most people get so sick that they go to bed. Third, it did not go to many urban areas. And it was just luck. If it had entered more urban areas, the number of cases would have been even larger. Next time, we might not be so lucky.
You may have a virus where when people become infected they feel good enough that they land on an airplane or they go to market. The source of the virus could be a natural pandemic like Ebola or it could be bioterrorism. So there are some things that will literally make things a thousand times worse. In fact, let's look at a virus virus model that spreads through the air like the Spanish flu in Year 9, so here's what happens: It's spreading around the world pretty quickly. And you can see that more than 30 million people died from the epidemic. So this is a serious problem. We should be concerned. But in reality, we can create a really good response system. All the science and technology we talk about here has its advantages. We got cell phones to get information from the public and get information from them. We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they are going.
We have advances in biology that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look for a pathogen and be able to produce drugs and vaccines suitable for that pathogen. So while we may have the tools, those tools need to be kept in the overall global health system. And we need preparation. I think the best lessons about how to be prepared, is what we do to fight. For the soldiers, we have the whole time, waiting to be done. We have reserves that can scale us enormously. NATO can test a lot of war games, are people trained? Do they understand about fuel and supply and the same radio frequency? So they are completely ready to go. So these are the kinds of things we have to deal with in an epidemic. What is the original piece?.
Mothers can safely give birth, babies can get all their vaccines. However, this is where we will see the outbreak very early. We need a medical reserve corps: lots of skilled people who have training and backgrounds who are ready to go and then we need to engage those medical people in the military. To take advantage of the military's rapid mobility, logistics and safe areas. We have to do simulation, germ games, not war games, so that we can see where the holes are. The germ game was last returned to the United States in 2001 and has not done so well yet the score is still germ: 1, people: 0. Lastly, we need a lot of advanced vaccines and diagnostics for vaccines and diagnostics. There are some big breakthroughs like adeno-related viruses that can work very quickly.
Now I have no exact budget for what it will cost, but I am convinced that it is very modest compared to the potential loss. The World Bank estimates that if we had a global flu pandemic, global resources would fall by more than three trillion dollars and kill billions and millions of people. These investments provide significant benefits beyond being prepared for the epidemic. Primary health care, research and development, these issues will reduce global health equality and make the world more secure as well as more secure. No need to panic. We don't have to collect cans of spaghetti or go to the basement. But we have to go, because time is not for us. In fact, if there is a positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic, it can serve as a preliminary warning, a wake-up call, to be prepared. If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic. Thanks.

Corona virus (COVID-19) How to use Thermometers Sailing under must Self ...

Monday, March 30, 2020

UK coronavirus measures 'could last for six months'

The clocks went forward last night but outside nobody would have noticed right now. We are all adjusting to a new concept of time. At first this lock down was for three weeks as a minimum today the deputy chief medical officer suggested a schedule that lasts much longer three weeks for review two or three months to see whether. we've really squashed it but about three to six months ideally and lots of uncertainty in that but then to see at which point we can actually get back to normal. And it is plausible that it could go further than that I don't think I have said we will be in lock down for six months just to be clear. 

This is a moving target from tomorrow every household will get a letter from the Prime Minister reminding us to stay indoors and warning. We will not hesitate to go further if that is what the scientific and medical advice tells us. We must do it's important for me to level with you we know things will get worse before they get better. We can get a message out to someone save lives Spencer crash was a cab driver he died after developing symptoms of a corona virus. Last week his wife had her own morning we can get a message out to say look. 

You can't accompany any father or mother that's going out there no to earn the money so please stay at home. It’s not worth it today was also announced that a doctor from Leicester has died of the virus as NHS staff are finally being swamped Ashley in Macklin's an oncologist who already knows. She has it but once the testing stepped up it's not quick enough it's not fast enough and they need to be doing more Germany on tests and double the number that we are every single day. We are a similar economic you know powerful country we can do it and I don't understand why they’re not doing it already tonight as Britain prepares to enter a second week in lock down. We may all be adjusting to a new normal.

Sunday, March 29, 2020

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Friday, March 27, 2020

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Sunday, March 22, 2020

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